Solar Fest

One of my professors, JC Oppenlander, wrote the book (well, an edition of the book) on traffic engineering studies. He was all about the fundamentals and the details. "PIEV," he would say, is an essential process that affects all aspects of driver (of course, also biker and walker) behavior. Perception, Intellection, Emotion, Volition... there is more to hazard perception-reaction than a stop watch.

What if we used the PIEV process as a lens on the hazards to civilization? Just as with drivers, would it not seem like nothing was happening for a long time, then -- suddenly -- volition happens.

There are no anti-lock brakes for civilization, so imagine what happens to a civilization that has to pump the brakes while it tries to avoid a hazard once it has perceived-intellectioned-emotioned.

But Underhill is not at volition yet. Energy Committee members are frustrated that piles of information, assistance, evidence, and testimony are not converting to action on energy conservation and efficiency. There is plenty of perception and intellection. Other than that Energy Committee frustration, there is no emotion in the process. As Oppenlander said, emotion is essential. It comes before volition.

Art is emotion. http://www.solarfest.org/

New Regular Meeting: 2nd Wednesdays

The Energy Committee  will move its regular meeting to 6:30pm on the second Wednesday of each month, beginning March 9, 2016.

My New Car is a lot like the Old Car

I recently bought a used 2001 Honda Insight, the highest fuel economy production car ever made. It augments my fleet, and will substitute for many miles on my 2002 Honda Odyssey. I am not being ecological in buying a second car, according to a set of tips (1) from the New York Times.

And my choice of cars doesn't matter so much:

In a 2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study, researchers used a lifecycle approach to compare the costs, energy use, and GHG emissions of eleven combinations of fuels and vehicle technologies for a mid-size passenger car that could be made commercially available by 2020 (Weiss et al. 2000). That study examined the use of a lightweight, aluminumintensive body and chassis to improve fuel economy and reduce GHG emissions. The results showed that a steel-intensive gasoline ICEV, aluminum-intensive gasoline ICEV, and aluminumintensive gasoline HEV had nearly the same vehicle-cycle energy use and emissions when assuming a 95% recycling rate for all metals and a 50% recycling rate for all plastics. On the other hand, an aluminum-intensive hydrogen FCV had a 14% increase in vehicle-cycle energy use and a 19% increase in CO2 emissions. (2)

Ultimately, I have to go with the wisdom that the dollar is a good proxy for damage. I paid a few hundred dollars for the car. It will have higher maintenance and repair costs, but I still expect it to cost less to own and operate than any other vehicle I have had so far. That's a tough challenge, because I have driven some true beaters. I am confident that the "aluminumintensive" Insight will last longer and amortize its ownership costs better than an old Saab I once owned, but the Odyssey will be much closer competition because it was cheap and has been driven a long way, so far, with many miles to go. That's how I get half of the way to saying that the 61 mpg, 1887 lbs  Insight is a lot like the 18mpg, 4354 lbs Odyssey.

The other half: All cars require infrastructure -- about $205 billion (3) nationally in 2010. For the Insight and the Odyssey, there is also a garage bay for each one, a driveway, and a parking space at the other end of whatever journey they take. Then there are the repair shops and their technicians. There is significant economic turnover regardless of how *efficiently* the vehicle consumes fuel.

Consider, too, the issue of vehicle occupancy. (4) When my last van was sold, it went to Africa. This is not uncommon for old vans. Why don't they take old Insights? First generation Insights only carry two people and, low slung, they require excellent paved roads. The Odyssey can carry 7 seat-belted, air-bag protected passengers in North America, which at full on a passenger-mile basis means that it is more energy efficient than the Insight. It is lucrative (5) to export a van to Africa, it can be crammed full of stuff, and once there it can be used as a truck or a bus, with one driver and maybe 10 passengers. Even though the van is way, way more resource-efficient than the Insight, they are both doing more damage (6) than the planet can handle.

(1) http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/03/upshot/what-you-can-do-about-climate-change.html
(2) https://greet.es.anl.gov/files/lkldbrwj
(3) https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/littlebook.pdf
(4) http://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/avo_TRPTRANS_WHYTRP1S.html

(5) http://www.economist.com/node/719514
(5) https://mg.co.za/article/2015-04-23-the-curse-of-cars-going-cheap